Sep 30, 2008
Prediction vs Explanation: A Puzzle
David Friedman poses a puzzle:
We do ten experiments. A scientist observes the results, constructs a theory consistent with them, and uses it to predict the results of the next ten. We do them and the results fit his predictions. A second scientist now constructs a theory consistent with the results of all twenty experiments.
The two theories give different predictions for the next experiment. Which do we believe? Why?
Detailed discussion on Overcoming Bias (whose readers are quite biased towards Bayesianism.)
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Daily Meh is written and edited by Simen (contact me). I live in Norway. This blog is about whatever interests me. Here are some of my favorite posts from the archives.
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